SPC MD 325

MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Portions of western/central Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 311334Z - 311530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue into Georgia
and the central/eastern Florida Panhandle. A less certain and
conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating is ongoing in parts of
central/southwestern Georgia where cloud cover has been more broken.
These areas have seen temperatures rise into the low 70s F this
morning. At least muted surface heating can be expected into the
afternoon. Observed 12Z soundings from Birmingham/Atlanta show steep
mid-level lapse rates, but also subsidence in the wake of a weaker
lead shortwave/MCV. With an upstream shortwave trough now entering
the Ozarks/Mid-South, additional mid-level ascent should promote
more favorable thermodynamic profiles with time. Current VAD data
from the region also shows relatively weak low-level flow. Again, as
the trough moves into the Southeast, an increase in 850 mb winds is
expected to occur. Overall, the primary severe threat should remain
damaging winds. The tornado threat is less certain as, even with an
increase in low-level winds, forecast hodographs still are rather
marginal. Nonetheless, a few QLCS tornadoes or perhaps even a
warm-advection-driven supercell tornado ahead of the line are still
possible. A watch will likely be needed this morning as activity
currently in Alabama and southern Mississippi continues east.

..Wendt/Smith.. 03/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   31048593 33328503 34118497 34588476 34698430 34488371
            33598281 31908309 30498418 29818459 29518518 29718592
            30418632 31048593 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN