NWS Forecast Discussion
Below is the latest Area Forecast Discussion from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office in Chanhassen, MN. It gives insight into why the forecasters are making the predictions you read in your local forecast. The overall "big picture" of the atmospheric setup is well described, as well as the forecasters' interpretation of the various Computer Atmospheric Models (CAMs). Sometimes, very specific information is available here that is not available, or otherwise generalized, in the public forecast.
000 FXUS63 KMPX 242324 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday`s system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the region. The heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Friday night. - There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection along the I-90 corridor in southern MN. - A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another strong system expected to bring additional widespread rain on Sunday. - A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GOES visible imagery highlights numerous smoke plumes spread across the Upper Midwest and a few fair weather Cu this afternoon. Winds remain light and somewhat variable this afternoon, but they should feature some southerly element at the surface. Enjoy the light winds while you can because the gales of April return from their brief break on Thursday, likely sticking around through the upcoming weekend. Highs today will be in the 60s with a 50s in W Wisconsin. Lows tonight remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s or about 10 degrees warmer than this morning. There is a non- zero threat of frost in west-central Wisconsin from roughly Eau Claire/Chippewa/Rusk counties. Thursday`s shaping up to be another breezy day with winds ramping up out of the south-southeast. Sustained at 15 to 20mph with gusts up to 35mph are forecast. This will cause another day with elevated fire weather conditions as MinRH values drop into the 30 to 35% range Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the mid 60s with increasing cloud cover throughout the day. Thursday night`s lows will remain on the warmer side, in the 40s and lower 50s, with increasing PoPs by Friday morning. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... The previous trends continued in the 12z guidance. Friday`s system will arrive later, and produce less rainfall across the region. Timing appears to the be the culprit with frontal boundaries moving through Friday night vs Friday afternoon. This means we`ll see more decaying convection that`ll taper off through Saturday morning. Fortunately, we`ll still see widespread amounts between a half inch to an inch Friday afternoon through Friday night. Temperatures will be in the 50s with gusty SE winds sustained 20mph gusting upwards of 35mph Friday afternoon. It`ll be a great Spring day to stay inside if possible, but it could always be worse [snow]. Saturday will be the "break" day between systems and looks fairly pleasant. Winds decrease some and a few peaks of sunshine are possible across portions of S MN and W WI. Temperatures warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday night will see PoPs begin to creep back up ahead of Sunday`s system. It`s interesting to compare the trend with Friday`s system vs the trend in Sunday`s. We`ve seen Sunday`s system trend wetter over the past 24 hours. This low appears to be the stronger of the two systems and should bring another 0.50" to 1" or more across the region. If you combine both systems a widespread 1 to 2" with the chance for some pockets of localized 3 to 4" possible. We`ll also have to keep an eye on the timing for Sunday. Latest guidance brings enough of the warm through S MN that we could see thunderstorms along I-90 Sunday PM. Some severe storms may be plausibly if this system takes a more favorable low track. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Beyond the weekend washout, we`ll see temperatures briefly cool down and dry out to end April. This trend doesn`t last long as much warmer weather pattern will be on deck for early May. This pattern also appears favorable for active weather across the central Plains to kick off May, but likely remains far enough south to limit our concern locally for now. Temperatures will trend toward the mid 70s for highs on Wednesday with warmer weather continuing beyond the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period with a rare day of light winds for this month. Southeasterly winds will increase by tomorrow morning with gusts of 20-25kts. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35 kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA likely early and overnight. VFR aftn. Chc IFR/TS overnight. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW. SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30kts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions through the period. Winds will remain light and variable through the night. Winds will pick through the day on Thursday eventually gusting from between 20 and 30 knots from the southeast. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35 kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA likely early and overnight. VFR aftn. Chc IFR/TS overnight. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW. SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...NDC