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NWS Forecast Discussion
Below is the latest Area Forecast Discussion from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office in Chanhassen, MN. It gives insight into why the forecasters are making the predictions you read in your local forecast. The overall "big picture" of the atmospheric setup is well described, as well as the forecasters' interpretation of the various Computer Atmospheric Models (CAMs). Sometimes, very specific information is available here that is not available, or otherwise generalized, in the public forecast.
000 FXUS63 KMPX 270615 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through the overnight hours. - Saturday will be drier, but rain will return for the second half of the weekend. - Our active pattern will remain in place as we head into May with more chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Our first round of rain from this morning is exiting eastern Minnesota and heading into northwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Further south and west, a new line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across southwestern Minnesota. Some hail has been reported with these storms across northwest Iowa, but as they continue into Minnesota, they will outrun the instability to our south. CAMs show this second line of showers and storms filling in from far northeastern South Dakota down through central Iowa as they move northeastward across the MPX area and lose some of their punch. There is a threat for some hail with any of the stronger storms, particularly across southern Minnesota, but these storms are not expected to be severe. This wave will move into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by late this afternoon with yet another on its heels. If we were to see any severe hail, it would be with this third line of storms as the warm front over Iowa continues to lift northward. However, confidence is low that this warm front will make it into Minnesota by this evening, limiting the chances for severe weather. In any case, rain is still expected area-wide through tonight with an additional quarter to half inch (with locally higher amounts) through Saturday morning. Rain will end by mid morning across much of the area as the surface low slides overhead. The aforementioned associated warm front will lead to quite a temperature spread from western Minnesota in the mid to upper 50s for highs to near 70 in western Wisconsin. Cloud cover will stick around but winds will let up a bit before we find ourselves on the backside of this system with another surface low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on Sunday morning. This will be another widespread 0.75"-1.5" rain event through much of the day. Thunderstorm wise, we will again find ourselves on the wrong side of the warm front with any severe chances remaining to our south and east. As we head into the final days of April, we`ll warm up and dry out a bit. Monday will still be on the cooler side with breezy west winds and mostly cloudy skies as the low continues on into northern Minnesota before southerly flow ramps up overnight and into Tuesday, sending highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s. More showers are possible Tuesday ahead of a cold front as a quick moving shortwave moves along the International Border. Shower chances linger through the middle of the week with continued breezy winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Surface low over SW MN now will be heading for north central WI through the morning. The last round of rain with this system is already lifting through the MKT area. It will follow the low north and each site will be dry for the rest of Saturday once this batch of showers moves through. With the low moving overhead, cigs are a bit tricky. We`ll likely see LIFR conditions immediately within and to the north of west of the low, with a wedge of drier air to the east of the low trying to clear things out. MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU would be in line for seeing a brief period of VFR cigs as the low passes to the west of each site, though satellite trends have shown this area of clearing filling back in across northern IA, so it`s hard to say if we`ll see much relief from the IFR cigs this morning. As the low lifts north of the area, we will see cigs improve into the top half of the MVFR range, with a brief period of VFR cigs possible this evening before cigs fill back in ahead of our next low for Sunday. KMSP...Surface low will pass between MSP and STC overnight, which means wind directions will swing through the south on their way over the the west for Saturday. Expect rain to be done at MSP by 10z. We could see some showers prior to 12z Sunday, but rain really looks to hold off until Sunday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind ENE 15-20G25-30 kts. MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind WSW 15-20G30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15G20-25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...MPG